Bush pulls closer in Michigan

A new poll indicates President Bush has climbed back into a statistical tie in his bid to win Michigan’s electoral votes.

The Research 2000 Poll of 600 likely voters found that 50 percent of those responding said they would vote for Democrat John Kerry and 46 percent said they would vote for Bush, with a plus-or-minus 4 percent margin for error.

Of the remainder, 1 percent said they would vote for Ralph Nader, 1 percent chose “others” and 2 percent said they were undecided.

The Tribune/WSBT-TV poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday and queried likely voters across the state.

A previous poll, taken Oct. 11-13, had given Kerry a 48 percent to 43 percent edge with the same 4 percent margin for error.

Pollster Delair Ali said the numbers indicate that both Kerry and Bush have solidified their bases.

Ali said he believes the final determination may come down to whether voters believe the war on terror and the war in Iraq are the same thing or different things, and their rating of the president’s performance.

The pollster noted that an effort was made during the Republican convention to combine those wars into one, while Kerry sought from the first debate on to separate them.

Ali said that if voters conclude that going into Iraq has not helped the United States win the war on terror, “Bush loses.”

In the Michigan poll, 52 percent of those queried said they disapprove of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq, and 43 percent said they approved.

When asked which candidate could better protect the United States from another terrorist attack, 50 percent chose Bush and 39 percent chose Kerry.

When asked which candidate could better handle the war in Iraq, those queried returned to the statistical tie, with 47 percent choosing Kerry and 45 percent choosing Bush.

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The greatest divide among voters is racial.

Whites favor Bush, 52 percent to 45 percent. Blacks prefer Kerry by an overwhelming 89 percent to 7 percent margin.

Kerry also wins the pocketbook issue: 48 percent believe he’d be the better choice to handle the economy, compared to 42 percent for Bush.

Ali, whose company polls nationwide, said he believes as of now that Kerry will win Ohio and has a chance of winning Florida, regarded as key states by both campaigns.

He said he is fascinated and puzzled by the amount of time the Bush campaign is spending in Pennsylvania.

He speculated that the move is either an actual attempt by the Bush campaign to secure Pennsylvania or a bluff intended to pull Kerry out of Florida.

Ali said some polls show Kerry leading in Florida, but noted that many votes there will be challenged and that telephone polls “can’t tell whose vote will be counted.”

South Bend Tribune