POLL: Kerry's Illinois lead shrinks

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. – If Illinois is a bellwether for what’s going on in “blue-state” America one week out from the presidential election, John Kerry may have some problems.

Kerry is still positioned for a comfortable victory in heavily Democratic Illinois, where he is leading President George W. Bush by a 12-point margin, according to a new Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV (Channel 4) poll.

But Bush has shaved that margin compared to an identical poll conducted last month, possibly on the strength of two factors: More Illinoisans are listing terrorism as a top concern; and fewer believe that Kerry is the better candidate to address that concern.

The telephone poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday by Research 2000, a Maryland-based firm. It has a margin for error of 3.5 percentage points, which means that any number could be that much higher or lower.

In Missouri, the presidential contest is a statistical tossup. Of the 800 likely Missouri voters polled Friday through Sunday, 48 percent back Bush and 45 percent support Kerry. The remaining 7 percent backed other candidates or were undecided. A month ago, Bush was ahead 49 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Though a Bush upset in Illinois would seem unlikely at this point, the numbers may hint at trouble for Kerry’s chances of keeping his supporters together in states where the split is closer – particularly when security from terrorism is the major issue on people’s minds.

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When asked whether he meant the actual war in Iraq, or the less-defined “war on terror,” Robinson responded: “Both.”

That linkage, said Research 2000 pollster Del Ali, is what the Bush camp is counting on.

“Iraq is still a huge issue, and it’s an issue that absolutely breaks against Bush” when the question is considered separately from the general issue of terrorism, said Ali. “But anything to do with terrorism, Bush comes out on top.”

That dynamic is evident when the issues of Iraq and terrorism are separated. The poll found Illinoisans as a whole believe Kerry is more capable of successfully resolving the Iraq conflict.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch