Research 2000

Palin will be the 2012 GOP Nominee

In June 2007 I unequivocally stated that Hillary Clinton would not win the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. I based this on two facts of which the latter are still belittled today by many pundits and political observers. The former was based on our state by state polling among both Democratic primary and general election voters which showed Hillary Clinton with “unelectable” high unfavorable’s which on average was higher than her favorable rating and ranged consistently in the high 40’s and low 50’s. The latter is simply the changing demographics among voters in the United States. This point of course was lost by many of those same pundits and political observers with my second prediction

that John McCain’s selection of Sara Palin as his VP was perhaps one of the worst selections ever made by a major political party’s presidential nominee. Today, Sarah Palin has unfavorable ratings higher than Hillary Clinton’s after her arrival on the national scene over a year ago. Of course I was ridiculed by those who seem to believe that the nation demographics and attitudes are still cemented in 1980, even after the election of Barack Obama to the presidency.



The recent murders of four police officers in Washington State by a career violent criminal who was granted parole by Mike Huckabee, when Governor of Arkansas, for all intents and purposes ended any realistic shot he had at winning the GOP nomination in 2012, given the fact that the majority of the Republican Party electorate is far more conservative culturally than it was in 1980. This leads me to my third prediction, Sarah Palin “WILL” be the GOP’s nominee in 2012. Her base of supporters are so solid that I believe she is immune to what former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards said about the only way he could lose to David Duke is if he was found in bed with a live boy or a dead girl. Palin will be the 2012 nominee based on how the 2008 GOP primaries played out and the party history when it comes to selecting their nominee. In 2008, there were three major players running for the GOP nomination. John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Rudy Giuliani was never viable at any time due to his position on abortion. So, among the big three, McCain would win as I predicted back in 2007 for the simple reason that Romney and Huckabee took votes from the same pool of culturally conservative voters, which although makes up the majority of the party, it allowed McCain to walk to the nomination because he was able to win with a plurality in almost all the primary states among fiscally conservative and socially more moderate Republicans. As a result, the 2012 GOP nomination is Sarah Palin’s to lose for two reasons. First, with Huckabee done and the fact that cultural conservatives never really have warmed up to Romney, over 90% of these voters will support Palin and two, the front runner in the GOP historically always wins the nomination. I am sure the counter argument will be that Barack Obama was unknown as was Jimmy Carter in 1976. However, we are talking about the Republican Party which is never unpredictable in choosing their nominee. Reagan in 1980, Bush in 1988, Dole in 1996, GW Bush in 2000 and McCain 2008 were all considered the front runners almost three years out before their respective elections. The party is the most conservative it has been in its history and this makes it even less likely that the status quo would change when it comes to electing their nominee. There are never dark horse candidates in the GOP who win the nomination so forget Tim Pawlenty, General David Petraeus, John Thune, etc. Speaking of Generals, Dwight Eisenhower was the front runner for both the Democratic and Republican parties in 1952, the GOP was just a little quicker out of the gate. The irony is that Ike not only would have no shot of the GOP nomination today, he would be deemed a too liberal and UnAmerican by the vast majority of the GOP base today. This same majority which matters when deciding on the nominee of the GOP is etched firmly in stone in stone for Sarah Palin.



TERP FOOTBALL side note: I would like to commend University of Maryland, Athletic Director Debbie Yow for doing the right thing and allowing Head football Coach Ralph Friedgen to right the ship. I believe Coach Friedgen will get it done!

As a die hard and loyal Mayland Terp I would like to add a few points about the state of the Maryland football program.

Joe Paterno was considered done back in the early part of the decade. Penn State had posted several losing seasons in a row and Ralph Friedgen was actually out recruiting Jo Pa from 2002-2004. The alum stuck with Jo Pa after he gave himself a cold hard slap in the face, took responsibility for not changing with the times and delegated more authority in terms of recruiting and play calling. As a result, PSU is a national power once again. Let me simply say that Ralph has as earned a mulligan for all he has done, however, he needs to do what Jo Pa did in terms of recruiting and he has to want to coach. I question really whether or not Ralph wants to continue.

Having defended Ralph, let me now be critical of him and present to you what I felt went wrong:

First of all Ralph brought college football back to College Park in 2001  Not only did the program win 10 in 2001, 11 in 2002 and 10 in 2003, the University invested to make Byrd Stadium a state of the art college football stadium and they have. In addition to his success on the field and the commitment to Byrd Stadium’s renovations and upgraded practice facilities, Ralph also had the advantage of Penn State’s decline and more importantly the history of the Terps of always having been able to recruit top flight quarterbacks the past three decades to College Park, Avellini, Manges, Dick, Boomer, Reich, O’Donnell, Zolak Hill an McBrien. With this history, the three winning seasons and the commitment to football by AD Debbie Yow, the men’s basketball team goes to two Final Fours and win’s the national title the same year Ralph takes his squad to the Orange Bowl.

So, one will ask, why all of sudden do top flight quarterbacks stop coming to Maryland as well as top recruits? The answer is two-fold and they rest entirely on Ralph Friedgen. His personality in the recruiting process has turned off not only players but local area coaches. I have my share of stories on several recruits that their dream was to play at Maryland, only to change their minds after meeting with Ralph. Secondly, this escalated after the 2005 season and it is perhaps the most under rated story as to what went wrong, In 2005, the Terps finished 5-6 and Coach Friedgen publicly blamed Junior QB Stan Hollenbach for the team not making it to a bowl. That story reverberated to every coach and recruit in the metro area. Even though Hollenbach led the Terps to a successful season the next year, the damage was done in terms of recruiting. Players do not want to  to play for a coach who will leave them out to dry publicly for the team’s misfortunes. More importantly local coaches do not want their kids playing in that environment.